Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Feb 22 2023 19:30:39 ACUS01 KWNS 221930 SWODY1 SPC AC 221929 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2023 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ....SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a tornado or two are possible across the Mid-Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys through the afternoon. ....20Z Update... ....Mid MS Valley... Strongly forced, shallow convective line continues to push quickly eastward across far east-central/southeast MO. The line remains free of lightning, and could be slightly elevated based on recent ACARS and modified RAP soundings. In contrast to the marginal thermodynamics, the LSX VAD continues to sample strong winds, including over 50 kt near 1 km AGL. These robust kinematics could still support occasionally strong wind gusts and/or a brief tornado throughout the afternoon. ....Mid-South... Potential for locally damaging wind gusts will persist as the low-topped line moving across eastern AR into the Mid-South. ...Mosier.. 02/22/2023 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023/ ....Ozarks/Mid-South and Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley... A compact shortwave trough and related speed max centered over eastern portions of Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas will continue to quickly race northeastward through tonight. Related wind fields will remain very strong, although the aforementioned system will gradually minor by late today while mid-level temperatures warm to its south. Initially, to the north of a warm front, ongoing elevated storms across east-central Illinois/west-central Indiana could pose an isolated/marginal severe hail risk through early afternoon. Farther southwest, within the warm sector, a very low-topped semi-organized semi-broken/wavy convective line extends from south-central/southwest Missouri south-southwestward into western Arkansas and the ArkLaTex vicinity, with little if any lightning flashes as of late morning. Line-preceding cloud breaks are noted across central/eastern Arkansas into far southeast Missouri, generally coincident with surface temperatures that have already reached 70F and surface dewpoints in the lower 60s F. Given this scenario, a modest diurnal heating-related uptick in updraft/downdraft intensity is plausible, although the weak overall buoyancy should limit the overall magnitude of the severe risk. Regardless, some potential for locally damaging winds and possibly a couple of brief tornadoes will exist especially across northern Arkansas/southern Missouri into southern/south-central Illinois. For additional short-term information, see Mesoscale Discussion 175. Farther southeast, a somewhat separate pre-frontal regime, for a least a low/conditional-type surface-based risk, will exist in closer proximity to the Mississippi River through late afternoon and possibly early evening. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .