Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Feb 22 2023 17:18:38 ACUS02 KWNS 221718 SWODY2 SPC AC 221717 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... A few lightning flashes will be possible from southwest Oregon across the California Coast and into northwest Arizona throughout the period. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible across portions of the Southeast later Thursday evening. ....Synopsis... A belt of strong southwesterly flow aloft is expected to extend across the CONUS, from southern CA northeastward through the central Plains and into the Upper Great Lakes/Northeast, early Thursday morning. A shortwave trough embedded within this southwesterly flow is forecast to move from the mid MO Valley quickly northeastward through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes throughout the day. An associated surface low will take a similar path, moving from central IL northeastward through the Northeast as an attendant cold front sweeps southeastward. By 12Z Friday, this low will likely be centered off the ME coast, with the cold front extending back southwestward from this low through NC, central portions of the Southeast states, and into southeast TX. Farther west, an upper low will continue southward along the West Coast, from just off the Pacific Northwest coast early Thursday to off the northern CA Coast by early Friday. At the same time, a shortwave trough is expected to proceed this low, moving from southern CA to the Four Corners. ....Northeast... Shallow convection is possible from northern PA through central NY/Hudson Valley and into southern New England Thursday evening amid strengthening warm-air advection and modest ascent attendant to the approaching surface low. A warm front will likely remain in place across southern NY into southern New England, with the surface low moving along this front. Consequently, most of this convection will be elevated. Additionally, warm mid-level temperatures will keep an updrafts shallow, likely limiting lightning production. Even so, given the strong low to mid-level flow, a few stronger gusts are possible with this convection. ....Southeast... Frontal progression will likely slow Thursday evening at it reaches northern MS/AL, in response to gradually strengthening low-level southerly flow. Resulting increasing in warm-air advection may trigger a few thunderstorms within the modestly moist air mass in place from the Mid-South into northern MS/AL. ....West Coast into Northwest AZ... Strong ascent and cold mid-level temperatures associated with the upper low will contribute to isolated thunderstorms throughout the period from coastal OR along the CA coast into southern CA. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible ahead of the lead shortwave trough across northwestern AZ vicinity Thursday evening. ...Mosier.. 02/22/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .