Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0176
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Feb 22 2023 16:59:22

ACUS11 KWNS 221659
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221659=20
INZ000-ILZ000-221830-

Mesoscale Discussion 0176
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1059 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023

Areas affected...East central IL and west central IN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 221659Z - 221830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated marginally severe hail and gusty winds may occur
across east central Illinois and west central Indiana over the next
few hours. A watch is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...A strong low-level jet is in place across Illinois and
Indiana, visible from regional VWPs, with isentropic ascent
occurring along and north of a warm front running from north of St.
Louis to south of Indianapolis. North of the warm front,
mesoanalysis and short-term model guidance indicate marginal
buoyancy (100-300 J/kg MUCAPE) aloft with moderate deep-layer shear
(~30 kts of effective bulk shear). A few elevated cells have
developed over east central Illinois and exhibit broad mid-level
rotation and occasional three-body scatter spikes on WSR-88D radars.
These cells should move to the east-northeast, though longevity is
uncertain due to more meager buoyancy with northeastward extent.
Given the weak buoyancy, expect marginally-severe hail and perhaps a
strong wind gust. While trends will be monitored, a watch is not
anticipated.

...Supinie/Weinman/Guyer.. 02/22/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9OwO_8Kx66OI9V5un7eVPfqzJfuj3Lz_ddGM2vTyp1-Rb7ASJPkYrFVJPj22JWCV6wBJtuoYw=
K8DoKJF_pYaosNBzok$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   39238609 39038650 38948703 38978746 38968805 39018867
            39108920 39148956 39348977 39628966 40548861 40618760
            40638681 40558638 40378597 40098591 39808597 39238609=20


=3D =3D =3D
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