Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Feb 22 2023 16:34:51 ACUS01 KWNS 221634 SWODY1 SPC AC 221633 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OZARKS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ....SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible from the Ozarks to the Mid-Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys through the afternoon. ....Ozarks/Mid-South and Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley... A compact shortwave trough and related speed max centered over eastern portions of Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas will continue to quickly race northeastward through tonight. Related wind fields will remain very strong, although the aforementioned system will gradually minor by late today while mid-level temperatures warm to its south. Initially, to the north of a warm front, ongoing elevated storms across east-central Illinois/west-central Indiana could pose an isolated/marginal severe hail risk through early afternoon. Farther southwest, within the warm sector, a very low-topped semi-organized semi-broken/wavy convective line extends from south-central/southwest Missouri south-southwestward into western Arkansas and the ArkLaTex vicinity, with little if any lightning flashes as of late morning. Line-preceding cloud breaks are noted across central/eastern Arkansas into far southeast Missouri, generally coincident with surface temperatures that have already reached 70F and surface dewpoints in the lower 60s F. Given this scenario, a modest diurnal heating-related uptick in updraft/downdraft intensity is plausible, although the weak overall buoyancy should limit the overall magnitude of the severe risk. Regardless, some potential for locally damaging winds and possibly a couple of brief tornadoes will exist especially across northern Arkansas/southern Missouri into southern/south-central Illinois. For additional short-term information, see Mesoscale Discussion 175. Farther southeast, a somewhat separate pre-frontal regime, for a least a low/conditional-type surface-based risk, will exist in closer proximity to the Mississippi River through late afternoon and possibly early evening. ...Guyer/Supinie.. 02/22/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .