Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0175
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Feb 22 2023 15:58:15

ACUS11 KWNS 221558
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221558=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-221730-

Mesoscale Discussion 0175
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0958 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023

Areas affected...portions of southern/central MO into northern AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 221558Z - 221730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong to perhaps severe gusts will be possible
across parts of southern/central Missouri and northern Arkansas over
the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...A band of convection oriented north to south just ahead
of an eastward-advancing cold front will continue to shift east
through early afternoon. Surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to near
60 F are noted in regional observations. Meager destabilization is
occurring across the region, with around 200-300 J/kg MUCAPE evident
in objective analysis. While weak instability will limit overall
severe threat, strong deep-layer southwesterly flow and effective
shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt will support organized line
segments. Convection may tend to vary in intensity, with brief
periods of strengthening before convection weakens. Given the strong
background shear environment, a few strong to severe gusts will be
possible. While a severe thunderstorm watch does not appear
imminent, trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance over
the next couple of hours.

...Leitman/Guyer.. 02/22/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5Mwaq_rFGA9WMjYlTI9k4TWk6OXcTbubddt3BIXqz2x1nV30C_uBaQrvxmR2m4nk7OXJIVr57=
-7545YqaYR6272Zqtw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   37569306 38149248 38089155 37439116 36709120 36069141
            35659206 35399288 35509334 36249329 37569306=20


=3D =3D =3D
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