Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0173
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Feb 22 2023 14:46:43

ACUS11 KWNS 221446
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221446=20
MIZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-221945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0173
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0846 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023

Areas affected...portions of northeast Iowa...southern
Wisconsin...and southern Lower Michigan

Concerning...Freezing rain=20

Valid 221446Z - 221945Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain is expected to increase over portions of
northeast Iowa, extreme northern IL, southern Wisconsin, and
southern Lower Michigan over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...A band of precipitation is expected to develop/move
northward over portions of northeast IA, extreme northern IL,
southern WI, and southern Lower MI over the next few hours in a
strong warm advection regime. Surface temperatures currently range
from around 29 F to 32 F. However, near-surface wet-bulb
temperatures remain below freezing across the region. As forcing for
ascent increases, precipitation rates are expected to
increase/become more efficient amid a band of 700 mb frontogenesis
overspreading the region. This should allow for enough dynamic
cooling such that boundary-layer temperatures remain at or just
below freezing. RAP forecast soundings indicate warming between the
850-700 mb layer over the next couple of hours atop a roughly 1 km
deep sub-freezing layer. This will support areas of moderate
freezing rain, with rates around 0.01-0.03" per hour. A mix of sleet
or snow also may occur with initial precipitation onset before a
transition to mainly freezing rain.

...Leitman.. 02/22/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!98jjRPgYxSMYjzHcdZ-dmNgJbrCIvy291HeOMlPw6nmMsAWmqCrzzIC-AVITOLoXCxOkZpXUb=
pPbA_ry5tMKGY32d2Q$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...GRR...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

LAT...LON   43348416 43258281 42938228 42468257 42238306 42128338
            42268861 42268989 42209085 42269204 42339242 42579265
            42859279 43169276 43349178 43419015 43398918 43348416=20


=3D =3D =3D
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