Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Feb 22 2023 12:47:55 ACUS01 KWNS 221247 SWODY1 SPC AC 221246 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OZARKS TO THE MID-MS VALLEY... ....SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds remain possible from the Ozarks to the Mid-Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys through this afternoon. ....South-central States to the Lower OH and Mid-MS Valleys... A compact shortwave trough over west TX will take on a negative tilt as it rapidly ejects northeast, reaching the Mid-MS Valley by late afternoon. However, mid-level temperatures within the base of this trough will quickly warm as a deeper shortwave trough ejects from the southern Great Basin to the central High Plains. This process will yield a less-than-ideal thermodynamic environment as mid-level lapse rates weaken through the day. The presence of a bifurcated plume of 60-65 F surface dew points around the Ozarks, across eastern OK/TX and the confluence of the MS/OH Rivers, will still support pockets of meager surface-based buoyancy into this afternoon. Convection along the leading surface trough has spread rapidly north-northeast into northeast OK. This activity has failed to substantially intensify and will move towards southwest MO where surface dew points are holding in the 50s. Convection may yet intensify from the northeast TX portion of the boundary where MLCAPE around 500 J/kg was sampled by the 12Z FWD sounding. Most CAM guidance indicate a low-topped QLCS should evolve across western to northern AR and from southwest to east-central MO later this morning into early afternoon, with downstream convective development probable along the warm front into central IL as well. It is plausible that an increase in intensity may occur during the early to mid-afternoon closer to the Mid-MS Valley as the QLCS impinges on the eastern branch of the moisture plume, but this may be conditional on pockets of greater insolation occurring. Damaging winds are likely to be the primary hazard owing to the pronounced instability limitations and initially enlarged low-level hodographs in the open sector weakening near the convective line. ...Grams/Gleason.. 02/22/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .