Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0172
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Feb 22 2023 10:08:13

ACUS11 KWNS 221008
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221007=20
ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-221230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0172
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0407 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023

Areas affected...Portions of far north TX into eastern OK and
western AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 221007Z - 221230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for severe thunderstorm wind gusts should
gradually increase this morning. Conditions are being monitored for
possible watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...An ongoing band of elevated convection has gradually
increased in intensity early this morning across parts of north TX
into far southern OK. This activity is occurring along or just ahead
of a composite front/dryline, and in association with strengthening
large-scale ascent preceding a mid-level shortwave trough ejecting
quickly northeastward over the southern Plains. Some convective
inhibition remains present over the warm sector from a residual
low-level temperature inversion. But, fairly cold mid-level
temperatures and lift attendant to the shortwave trough should aid
in the erosion of this cap over the next few hours.

Current expectations are for these thunderstorms to continue slowly
intensifying as they encounter greater low-level moisture (low 60s
surface dewpoints) and weak MLCAPE (250-500 J/kg) in eastern OK and
vicinity. The ongoing convection appears to be in a relative minimum
of low-level winds (around 850 mb) per RAP forecast soundings and
latest mesoanalysis estimates. Still, deep-layer shear should be
sufficient to support an organized line of convection, and enough
low-level flow will be present for some threat of severe/damaging
downdraft winds. Embedded circulations within the line may also pose
a threat for a tornado or two, even with a veer/back/veer signature
in RAP/NAM forecast soundings. The primary uncertainty at the moment
is when this activity will transition from mainly elevated to
surface-based, and observed wind gusts strengthen along the line.
Most short-term guidance suggests this may happen over the next
couple of hours (around/by 12Z) as the low-level cap erodes. While
not immediately likely, convective trends will be closely monitored
for possible watch issuance by 12Z/6 AM CST.

...Gleason/Grams.. 02/22/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-h7VHh4HL3DLfX-cZ0oH9F63jbfAocAeiaR9gsg1RQKT7DcxLJsVq4k0NHLNfMGbH9_Mu4HEv=
utKuyKDpRtG2DEUVpo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33569764 34559694 36039561 36449460 36429359 35509370
            34609439 34029503 33519571 33249748 33569764=20


=3D =3D =3D
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