Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Feb 22 2023 07:52:26

FOUS30 KWBC 220752
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
251 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2023

Day 1
Valid 01Z Wed Feb 22 2023 - 12Z Wed Feb 22 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Local radar imagery over Mississippi and Alabama this morning
showed a couple of narrow axes of higher reflectivity, oriented
west to east, correlating to MRMS-derived and at least one gauge
confirmed (Wunderground) hourly rainfall total in excess of 1
inch. Cloud tops on infrared imagery and 12Z soundings from JAN
and BMX indicated the showers were largely warm rain based with
little lightning driven by shallow instability predominantly below
500 mb. Low level convergence near 925 mb was helping to focus
these showers. Short term training could conceivably support 2
inches of rain in 1 to 2 hours, which given above average soil
moisture across Mississippi and Alabama, could result in very
localized flooding, including any overlap with any urban areas.
This threat is too low to include a risk area on the outlook and
the showers/localized thunderstorms are expected to translate
eastward into Georgia (drier soils) by late afternoon or early
evening, coinciding with weakening low level winds and
convergence.

Otto


Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6lZtppr64b7Fi-HA6GG-3xRSQ4TsX7io8WkLbq9vdQeK=
jy0p8SzFru5Zi20OThjoqbUzGwOJMWh2XNheLFkXu5-7BJ8$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6lZtppr64b7Fi-HA6GG-3xRSQ4TsX7io8WkLbq9vdQeK=
jy0p8SzFru5Zi20OThjoqbUzGwOJMWh2XNheLFkXV5BnOy4$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6lZtppr64b7Fi-HA6GG-3xRSQ4TsX7io8WkLbq9vdQeK=
jy0p8SzFru5Zi20OThjoqbUzGwOJMWh2XNheLFkXbJZow2Y$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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