Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Feb 22 2023 05:49:17

ACUS02 KWNS 220549
SWODY2
SPC AC 220547

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2023

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Little thunderstorm activity is expected over the U.S.A. on
Thursday. A few lightning flashes will be possible over parts of the
Northeast, and across western parts of California.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
A broad area of strong upper-level southwesterlies will stretch from
the base of a trough over the Southwest across the Plains and into
the Northeast. Within this flow regime, a low-amplitude wave will
intensify as it moves across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast,
with up to 130 kt winds at 500 mb. Meanwhile, an upper high will
slowly retrograde from the Bahamas across FL.

At the surface, low pressure will move from northern IL Thursday
morning into NY by 00Z, with a cold front trailing southwestward
across the OH Valley and toward the TX Coast. The low will translate
eastward close to an east-west oriented baroclinic zone, which may
not make much northward progress.

Across the warm sector, 50s F dewpoints are forecast to reach OH/PA,
with mid to upper 60s F across the central Gulf states. Weak
surface-based CAPE may develop over parts of LA/MS/AL during the
day, but lift will not be favorable for storm development.

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms appear most probable near
the surface low/cold front from eastern OH into the Northeast, where
elevated CAPE around 100 J/kg may develop. Wind fields will be
intense just off the surface, which could lead to a few strong gusts
with any showers or weak storms.

Otherwise, scattered low-topped convection will be possible over
coastal OR and much of coastal CA, where lapse rates will be steep
due to cold air aloft beneath the upper trough.

...Jewell.. 02/22/2023

$$

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