Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Feb 21 2023 20:10:06 ACUS02 KWNS 211730 SWODY2 SPC AC 211924 Day 2 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2023 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA NORTHEAST INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from Wednesday morning through afternoon from parts of Oklahoma into western Arkansas, across Missouri and western Illinois. Damaging winds appear most likely. ....Synopsis... Within a large-scale mid/upper-level trough, a pronounced shortwave trough will lift rapidly northeast from the southern Plains towards the Great Lakes. Intense low/mid-level wind fields will accompany this shortwave trough as it accelerates northeast and generally weakens while moving into a more confluent mid-level flow regime. Farther west, a strong upper-level speed max will drop south along the west coast and contribute to the development of a closed upper low near the CA coast. Surface low pressure will develop along a front over eastern KS and move towards northern IL late Wednesday. ....OK northeast into MO/IL/IN and northwest AR... Strong/severe thunderstorms may be ongoing across central/eastern OK at 12z Wednesday in the vicinity of the dryline/cold front. The presence of surface dew points in the upper 50s/lower 60s will contribute to modest instability ranging from 250 to 750 J/kg across the warm sector during the day, and storms are expected to move rapidly northeast during the morning and afternoon. Very strong low- and mid-level wind fields (50-65 kts) will translate northeast with the shortwave trough and provide a favorable environment for strong/severe wind gusts with the stronger convective elements. Although large-scale ascent will tend to weaken with time as the trough moves into increasingly confluent mid-level flow over the Great Lakes, at least some severe risk may persist as far east as central IL and western IN. Low severe wind probabilities have been extended east accordingly. Although the predominant linear mode will result in damaging winds as the main severe risk, a brief tornado cannot be ruled out given favorable low-level shear and at least some potential for transient supercell structures and QLCS circulations. ...Bunting.. 02/21/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .