Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Feb 20 2023 17:30:37

ACUS02 KWNS 201730
SWODY2
SPC AC 201729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2023

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Tuesday.

....Discussion...
Amplification of the upper flow field is expected across the U.S.
Tuesday.  This will occur as a low initially off the Baja coast is
kicked eastward across northern Mexico toward the southern Plains,
by an evolving trough now over the Gulf of Alaska that is expected
to amplify and dig rapidly southward along the western NOAM coast.

As this progression proceeds, and a large area of cyclonic flow
evolves across the western half of the country, downstream ridging
will amplify across the eastern states through latter stages of the
period.

Limited instability across the country will preclude any appreciable
severe potential.  Southerly flow evolving from the southern Plains
and eventually into the Mid and Lower Mississippi/Tennessee/Ohio
Valleys will advect higher theta-e air northward atop a stable
boundary layer, resulting in widespread precipitation and embedded
lightning across this area.  Farther west, widespread showers are
expected as troughing evolves, with some lightning possible in a few
areas including portions of the West Coast, Great Basin, and Desert
Southwest.

...Goss.. 02/20/2023

$$

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