Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Feb 20 2023 12:26:03

ACUS01 KWNS 201226
SWODY1
SPC AC 201224

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0624 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2023

Valid 201300Z - 211200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through early Tuesday.

....Portions of the southern Appalachians to the Lower MS Valley...
A few elevated thunderstorms will be possible, mainly in the late
evening to overnight, across parts of the Cumberland Plateau and TN
Valley. Modest low-level warm theta-e advection, peripherally
attendant to a clipper shortwave trough progressing into the Great
Lakes should support at least isolated showers. Predominately
westerly low-level winds suggest MUCAPE will likely remain no
greater than scant, yielding only very isolated thunderstorm
potential.

Farther west-southwest into the Lower MS Valley, while modest
low-level warm advection is also anticipated tonight, relatively
warm/dry mid-levels may mitigate appreciable thunderstorm
development, resulting in unconditional probabilities around 10
percent or less.

...Grams/Gleason.. 02/20/2023

$$

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