Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Feb 20 2023 09:39:38

ACUS48 KWNS 200939
SWOD48
SPC AC 200938

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2023

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models show a dynamic pattern throughout the extended
period, but models are not currently showing appreciable buoyancy
developing over the central-eastern U.S. through at least Saturday
(day 6).  Models generally show a mid-level low over the Desert
Southwest this weekend beginning to move east and emerge into the
southern Rockies/High Plains perhaps late Sunday (day 7).  Some
signal (low confidence) is shown that a moist/warm sector may
develop over the south-central U.S. by late in the extended period.
Model variability at this timeframe substantial enough in terms of
moisture quality and timing of the ejecting system to preclude
severe probabilities.

...Smith.. 02/20/2023

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