Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Feb 20 2023 08:07:36

ACUS03 KWNS 200807
SWODY3
SPC AC 200806

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2023

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday from parts
of Oklahoma and north Texas eastward into the lower Mississippi
Valley.

....Synopsis...
An intense mid-level shortwave trough will very quickly move from
the southern High Plains into the lower OH Valley by early evening.
A larger-scale mid- to upper-level trough will encompass much of the
West by early evening.  The primary mid-level speed max will round
the base of the larger-scale trough and move from southern CA to the
southern Rockies, and subsequently into the mid MS Valley by early
Thursday morning.  A lee surface low will develop over southeast CO
during the day before developing northeastward into IA by the end of
the period.

Showers/thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across parts of the
southern Great Plains Wednesday morning, aided in part by a 65-kt
850mb south-southwesterly LLJ centered over the Arklatex.  A few
elevated thunderstorms could potentially yield a marginal risk
Wednesday morning before this activity dissipates or shifts east of
the area.  By midday, appreciable surface heating will result in
warm temperatures across the Gulf Coast states.  However, relatively
limited lapse rates depicted in model forecast soundings, suggest
updraft intensity may be tempered.  Very strong flow through the
troposphere will conditionally favor storm organization.
Uncertainty is relatively high whether storms can develop, become
sustained, and spread downstream.  Given the relative weaknesses
concerning lapse rates/buoyancy depicted in model guidance, it seems
appropriate for highlighting the potential as a Marginal Risk.

...Smith.. 02/20/2023

$$

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