Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Feb 20 2023 06:45:04

ACUS02 KWNS 200644
SWODY2
SPC AC 200643

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2023

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday across
the contiguous United States.

....Synopsis...
A mid-level low near Baja California will evolve into an open trough
while moving east across northern Mexico and reaching southwest TX
and adjacent portions of Mexico.  A powerful upstream speed max will
dig south-southeastward along the Pacific Coast.  A cyclone will
deepen over the Great Basin during the period.  A surface warm front
will advance north across the Mid South and the Ozark Plateau.
Southerly low-level flow will advect moisture north across the
southern Great Plains.  A strengthening warm conveyor belt (50-65 kt
850mb flow) is forecast from TX into the lower MO Valley/OH Valley
mainly after dark, and will favor the development of scattered
showers/thunderstorms.  The greatest coverage of thunderstorms will
probably focus across parts of west into northwest TX and southern
OK, and in a separate area from the lower MO Valley east into the OH
Valley.  MUCAPE ranging from 250-750 J/kg in the presence of strong
vertical shear may result in a stronger elevated storm or two near
the Red River.

...Smith.. 02/20/2023

$$

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