Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Feb 19 2023 17:30:03

ACUS02 KWNS 191729
SWODY2
SPC AC 191728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2023

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States on Monday.

....Discussion...
Broad cyclonic flow aloft will continue to prevail across the entire
U.S. Monday, as a deep polar vortex remains over northern portions
of Hudson Bay through the period.

Meanwhile, a separate/closed low -- progged to lie just off the
southern California/northern Baja coast early -- is expected to
drift eastward/southeastward through the period.

As this low moves eastward, modest cooling aloft may combine with
daytime heating to allow minimal CAPE development over portions of
Arizona.  Given this, associated ascent may be sufficient to support
development of showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two during the
afternoon

Elsewhere, a disturbance within the broad cyclonic flow field aloft
is progged to cross the Upper Midwest and later the Upper Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley.  QG ascent associated with the southern fringe of
this feature may prove sufficient to allow isolated/elevated
convective development across portions of the Middle/Lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys and vicinity, where some lightning
potential remains evident.

Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected.

...Goss.. 02/19/2023

$$

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