Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Feb 19 2023 09:14:58

ACUS48 KWNS 190914
SWOD48
SPC AC 190913

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0313 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2023

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models continue to show a powerful mid-level trough
rapidly moving from southwest TX/northern Chihuahua to the lower OH
Valley during daylight hours on Wednesday.  Considerable uncertainty
remains regarding destabilization of the airmass ahead of the
disturbance, both from a lapse rate and moisture perspective.
Regardless, intense wind fields suggest any robust thunderstorms
that may develop and become sustained, will result in the risk for a
severe hazard.  Models show an upstream speed max quickly moving
from the Desert Southwest into the middle MS Valley by early
Thursday. A substantial cold front is forecast to push southeast
across much of the southern Great Plains and lower MS Valley on
Thursday (day 5).  Models exhibit more spread towards the end of the
extended period, but it seems like a less potential for severe as a
split-flow pattern redevelops.

...Smith.. 02/19/2023

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.