Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Feb 18 2023 09:45:51

ACUS48 KWNS 180945
SWOD48
SPC AC 180944

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2023

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models show a mid-level low over Baja California moving
east and evolving into an open trough over northern Mexico on
Tuesday (day 4).  Substantial model variability exists in the
depicted evolution of this low-latitude, negatively tilted shortwave
trough.  According to medium-range models, the wind fields are very
intense over the Arklatex/ArkLaMiss region and areas northeastward
into the Mid South on Wednesday.  Large uncertainty exists in the
initiating mechanism/s for thunderstorms, the thermodynamic
profiles, and the convective mode---all consequential variables yet
to be resolved.  Nonetheless, an area of interest has been
highlighted with 15-percent severe probabilities centered over the
ArkLaMiss vicinity on Wednesday (day 5).  A seasonably large amount
of arctic air is projected over the central High Plains by mid week.
 It seems likely the continental-polar airmass behind a sharp front
will influence the west and northwest portions of a warm sector by
Thursday (day 6).  Model variability is high by the latter part of
the extended period.

...Smith.. 02/18/2023

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