Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Feb 17 2023 19:40:17

ACUS01 KWNS 171940
SWODY1
SPC AC 171938

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2023

Valid 172000Z - 181200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous U.S.
today.

....20z Update...

The 10 percent general thunderstorm area as been trimmed across GA
and portions of north FL with the 20z update based on current
location of the surface cold front. A few lightning flashes will
remain possible across parts of north Florida into coastal North
Carolina as the front shifts eastward through early evening.

...Leitman.. 02/17/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2023/

....Discussion...
A positive-tilt upper trough, extending from the lower Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley to the Mid-South, will continue eastward and reach
the western Atlantic late tonight and early Saturday. Although
subsidence inversions/weak lapse rates were commonly noted in warm
sector 12z observed soundings, a low potential for a few
thunderstorms will persist today across eastern North Carolina and
north Florida/southern Georgia near and ahead of a cold front.

$$

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