Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Feb 17 2023 05:27:13

ACUS01 KWNS 170527
SWODY1
SPC AC 170525

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2023

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States on Friday.

....Discussion...

Positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to shift off the Atlantic
Coast by the end of the period. Prior to this, warm advection will
prove instrumental in elevated convective threat across upstate NY
into northern VT/NH, north of a warm front. Forecast soundings
across this region exhibit steep mid-level lapse rates atop a cold,
stable boundary layer. 100-200 J/kg of MUCAPE should support a few
deeper updrafts capable of generating lightning, mostly before 18z.

Westerly flow will deepen across the Southeast/northern FL ahead of
a trailing cold front that will move off the Southeast Atlantic
Coast by early evening. While profiles will moisten ahead of the
front, forecast soundings do not exhibit much buoyancy within a poor
lapse rate environment. Even so, a few flashes of lightning may
accompany the most robust updrafts, though storms will remain very
isolated.

...Darrow/Wendt.. 02/17/2023

$$

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