Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0170
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Feb 16 2023 23:58:13

ACUS11 KWNS 162358
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162357=20
TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-170130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0170
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0557 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2023

Areas affected...Far northern Alabama into Middle/Eastern Tennessee

Concerning...Tornado Watch 39...

Valid 162357Z - 170130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 39 continues.

SUMMARY...A strong to locally severe storm or two remains possible
in Middle/Eastern Tennessee and possibly northeast Alabama this
evening. Increasingly poor thermodynamics should preclude additional
watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Convective trends have generally shown a decrease in
storm intensity and organization over the past 1-2 hours. A storm
will persistent mid-level rotation has recently dissipated east of
Nashville. A couple of stronger storms remain in Middle Tennessee.
These storms may maintain some intensity for another hour or two
given marginally warm temperatures (around 70 F) in the Chattanooga
vicinity. Damaging winds and marginally severe hail are the main
threats, though a brief tornado could also occur. Otherwise,
precipitation ahead of the stronger activity combined with drier air
will limit buoyancy as storms move eastward. While a local extension
in time of WW 39 is possible depending on observational trends,
additional watch issuance is not expected this evening.

...Wendt.. 02/16/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-_BCPsidP43-PYsyyJ04g2qx2HDdRXh4aift6fOj8bGyZTZGCcWC95jZKDvHzuI__Vm_FyOMb=
eW0oZ005cmoEwH3Q9E$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...HUN...

LAT...LON   35118524 34838548 34578573 34408624 34308698 34438706
            35068713 35718652 36378541 36478482 36328445 35838454
            35118524=20


=3D =3D =3D
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