Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Feb 16 2023 23:25:58

AWUS01 KWNH 162325
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-170524-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0070
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
624 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2023

Areas affected...portions of MS & AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 162324Z - 170524Z

Summary...Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall should become more
progressive and less efficient from a rainfall perspective later
tonight.  Until then, hourly rain totals to 2" with local amounts
to 4" are possible where soils are becoming increasingly saturated.

Discussion...A broad area of thunderstorms continues to develop
and progress ahead of a cold front and attendant upper level
trough.  Precipitable water values are 1.5-1.8" per GPS data.  MU
CAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg exists near and inland of the central Gulf
Coast.  Effective bulk shear is ~60 kts, which along with
unidirectional southwest flow is allowing for the formation of
short, linear bands of thunderstorms.  Activity immediately near
the Gulf Coast itself appears to be hindered by 700 hPa
temperatures near or above 6C, which is leading to less rainfall
efficiency.

As instability slowly gets eroded by the incoming cold front and
pre-frontal convection, a narrowing line of thunderstorms is
expected, particularly during the later portion of the MPD period
(at or after 03z), due to squall line formation.  Until that
happens, hourly rain totals to 2" with local amounts to 4" are
expected in and around eastern MS and central AL over an area with
increasingly saturated soils/lowering flash flood guidance values.


Roth

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9PBKCoJ_aHJUdtWOdmnrZmGuIZ9yJVJMLUjBa_xrPIwxJw3oxOjQR_79x7YBKN2let93=
9QgEImiaF1SfVQEyMP8almc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34138596 32878546 31098790 30299084 30479195=20
            33098888=20

=3D =3D =3D
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