Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Feb 16 2023 21:44:00

FOUS30 KWBC 162143
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
442 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2023

Day 1
Valid 2142Z Thu Feb 16 2023 - 12Z Fri Feb 17 2023

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST & THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

There is good model agreement on the eastward push of an upper
level trough from the Central to Southern Plains into the Mid to
Lower MS Valley, OH Valley and TN Valley.  Strong south
southwesterly low level flow off the western Gulf will continue to
transport much above average PW values, 2 to 3 standard deviations
above the mean, northeastward ahead of the upper level trough and
the associated cold front.  Organized frontal and pre-frontal
convection should evolve into a squall line which pushes eastward
through the Lower MS Valley into the TN Valley region into
Thursday evening in what will be an overall very favorable pattern
for an organized convective line along and ahead of the eastward
moving front, with strong frontal convergence expected in the axis
of anomalous PW values and Mu-Cape values currently 2000+ J/kg
near the Gulf Coast.  While radar trends have allowed some of the
western area of the excessive rainfall regions to be cleared, 18z
HREF probabilities of 0.5"+ an hour and 3"+ in 12 hours along with
radar reflectivity trends led to some southwest expansion of the
Marginal and Slight Risk areas.  Very low flash flood guidance
values across KY and southwest WV from heavy rains earlier
Thursday led to the maintenance of the Slight Risk area near the
upper Ohio Valley.

Roth


Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Feb 17 2023 - 12Z Sat Feb 18 2023

The probablity of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Kebede


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Feb 18 2023 - 12Z Sun Feb 19 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Kebede


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6YEF3AaDnVe4x6TyX9ePHTzcy-iz9TPQWCiSizn9p6Wc=
QHE2RedHYjtHhU_3VtsrV1TkyNIcFxDs2H5YQZCM9321l5A$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6YEF3AaDnVe4x6TyX9ePHTzcy-iz9TPQWCiSizn9p6Wc=
QHE2RedHYjtHhU_3VtsrV1TkyNIcFxDs2H5YQZCMmT3Dvsc$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6YEF3AaDnVe4x6TyX9ePHTzcy-iz9TPQWCiSizn9p6Wc=
QHE2RedHYjtHhU_3VtsrV1TkyNIcFxDs2H5YQZCMxeuCSuo$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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