Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Feb 16 2023 17:03:10

ACUS02 KWNS 161703
SWODY2
SPC AC 161701

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States on Friday.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
On Friday, a large positive-tilt upper trough will move eastward
across the eastern CONUS, with an upper ridge over the Four Corners
states. Meanwhile, an upper low will drift south off the CA Coast.

At the surface, low pressure will begin the day over NY, with a cold
front extending south across the Piedmont and into the northeast
Gulf of Mexico. This front will push rapidly eastward through the
early afternoon, with dewpoints in the 50s F over the Mid Atlantic
rising to the mid 60s F over northern FL.

Low-level lapse rates will remain poor ahead of the front over most
of the eastern seaboard, the exception being FL. Little if any
surface-based instability is forecast to develop, and rapidly
veering winds aloft will result in drying.

Shear will be very strong near the front, and gusty winds may occur
with the expected band of frontal precipitation and wind shift. But
the lack of instability or heating will preclude any severe chances
prior to the front moving offshore. Just a few lightning flashes
will be possible from the FL Panhandle into eastern NC during the
day, and perhaps briefly with weak elevated instability from NY into
southern New England.

...Jewell.. 02/16/2023

$$

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