Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Feb 16 2023 15:41:58 AWUS01 KWNH 161541 FFGMPD VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-162140- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0067 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1040 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2023 Areas affected...Portions of the OH Valley Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 161540Z - 162140Z SUMMARY...A regional threat of flash flooding will continue heading into the afternoon hours from persistent areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms. DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows an extensive axis of heavy showers and thunderstorms impacting large areas of Kentucky with the activity advancing downstream into southwest West Virginia. The convection has been strongly facilitated this morning by the advance of a low amplitude shortwave trough through the OH Valley which will be crossing into the central Appalachians over the next few hours. Around the southern flank of this shortwave energy, and with proximity of a quasi-stationary frontal zone, there has been an increasingly confluent southwest low-level jet of 40 to 50 kts. This has been driving robust moisture transport into the region from upstream areas of the Mid-South and the latest RAP analysis shows a notably strong axis of moisture convergence aligned in a southwest to northeast fashion from northwest Tennessee through central Kentucky. A nose of mainly elevated instability with MUCAPE values of 500 to 1000+ J/kg is noted across these areas as well. The additional transport of upstream moisture and instability along and ahead of the aforementioned front with persistently strong low-level forcing, and with a gradual increase in right-entrance region jet dynamics aloft heading into the afternoon hours, should favor additional rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall rates should tend to be highest over western and central Kentucky, with at least some occasional rates here upwards of 1.5+ inches/hour given better instability. Areas downstream over eastern Kentucky and into southwest West Virginia will see rates a bit lower closer to 1 inch/hour with some of the stronger convective elements. Additional storm totals of as much as 2 to 3 inches are expected by late-afternoon across the region. Given the persistent nature of the heavy rainfall threat, and with many areas of especially central and western Kentucky already seeing runoff problems with wet antecedent conditions, a regional threat of flash flooding will continue over the next several hours going into the afternoon hours. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9GbM0EAv4XOwzq9wDMoyKchyxUyNjh-pXJsz207NdnqSISyn5Bbydg163NWZLlmQqOtn= G0iFrnoNwYVhpZIRxdkKqjo$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...MEG...OHX...PAH...RLX... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 38788280 38678157 38268118 37578160 37058306=20 36658546 36488699 36458827 36638871 37128869=20 37778782 38238620 38678425=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .