Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0160
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Feb 16 2023 13:54:36

ACUS11 KWNS 161354
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161354=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-161600-

Mesoscale Discussion 0160
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023

Areas affected...Portions of LA...western MS...and extreme
southeastern AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 161354Z - 161600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A risk for tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail should
gradually increase this morning. Trends are being monitored for
possible watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Pre-frontal convection has gradually increased over the
past hour across parts of southern LA. The 12Z observed sounding
from LCH indicates that minimal convective inhibition remains across
this area, with around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE present. Deep-layer
shear of 50+ kt will easily support organized thunderstorms. This
region will remain on the southern fringe of appreciable large-scale
ascent associated with an upper trough/low over the southern/central
Plains. But, some forcing for ascent attendant to a 30-35 kt
south-southwesterly low-level jet is present over the warm sector.
It remains unclear whether the ongoing convection will appreciably
strengthen over the next 1-2 hours given weak forcing. Still, there
appears to be some chance that the ongoing activity could develop
into supercells and pose a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and
some hail this morning. While not immediately likely, watch issuance
before 16Z (10 AM CST) is possible, and will be highly dependent on
observational trends.

...Gleason/Edwards.. 02/16/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5LNdxLW94AdO0BGLzzN1DwqoResE6tWWCF463N5EoZQ3m850nWB-aW59wSbm3vypwA8h6GseG=
BIX48xiS_Dy14r3m6I$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   30329206 30729289 31229260 31569236 33149207 33289183
            33289111 33029058 32369048 31009076 30339137 30329206=20


=3D =3D =3D
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