Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Feb 16 2023 13:08:55 AWUS01 KWNH 161308 FFGMPD TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-161906- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0066 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 806 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2023 Areas affected...Western TN, Northeast AR, Northern MS Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 161306Z - 161906Z Summary...Additional heavy rainfall over the next several hours is possible across portions of western TN and adjacent portions of northeast AR and northern MS. Given saturating soil conditions over much of the area, this rainfall may cause additional flash flooding through the morning hours. Discussion...A good setup for backbuilding and training convection has been ongoing early this morning across portions of western TN, resulting in as much as 3-4" of rainfall thus far in spots. Winds at 850mb are out of the southwest at around 50 to 55 kts, which is generally aligned and equal to the deep layer 0-6 km winds. This wind profile is indeed supportive of training/backbuilding of convective cells. Meanwhile PWs are around 1.5", which is about as high as they can get in mid February over this region. Instability is also sufficient, with upstream CAPE of ~1000 to 1500 J/KG advecting into the region. Thus many of the ingredients for heavy rainfall appear to be in place across the area. The setup looks to remain pretty similar until the cold front clears the area from west to east later this morning into the early afternoon hours. As the front approaches there is some signs that both the magnitude of the low level flow and the degree of instability will let up a tad...so we may not see quite the magnitude of training that was experienced earlier this morning. Nonetheless, the ingredients will still be sufficient for heavy rainfall and some training linear segments both ahead of and right along the cold front. Additional rainfall of 1-3" is likely in spots within the MPD, which given the antecedent rainfall, and thus current soil saturation levels, should be enough to support some additional instances of flash flooding. Also can not rule out some locally significant flash flooding over western TN, especially if additional training cells align with areas already hard it earlier this morning. Chenard ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6U4atGW3KRWY3aKUnGFJUOXrUSleliYEG64zGtko1B9_uJ0QZwNx4mFm94ssciD3VhWR= dtZAAAAz1T5USmocCc2yaUY$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...OHX...PAH... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 36418788 36278762 35828778 35348826 34848940=20 34549031 34519071 35049065 35299055 35489053=20 36089035 36329023 36368958 36348928 36318862=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .