Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0158
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Feb 16 2023 10:09:07

ACUS11 KWNS 161009
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161008=20
TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ILZ000-ARZ000-161115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0158
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0408 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023

Areas affected...Portions of AR...northwestern MS...western
TN...southeastern MO...and far southwestern KY

Concerning...Tornado Watch 34...

Valid 161008Z - 161115Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 34 continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and severe hail
will continue this morning. A new Tornado Watch will be issued
before 11Z (5 AM CST).

DISCUSSION...A positively tilted upper trough/low will continue to
slowly pivot eastward across the southern/central Plains this
morning. 10Z mesoanalysis shows a weak surface low along/near the
AR/MO border, with a cold front extending southwestward across the
ArkLaTex region. A warm front was analyzed across southeastern MO
into western KY. Modifying the 06Z observed sounding from LZK for
current surface observations suggests that the environment across
the warm sector remains moderately unstable, with generally
1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE present. Strengthening/veering winds with
height through mid/upper levels is also supporting ample low-level
and deep-layer shear. This shear will likely continue to foster
updraft organization/rotation through the rest of the morning.

Recent radar trends show the ongoing convection across north-central
AR has weakened a little. But, additional thunderstorms along a
pre-frontal confluence line are slowly organizing across central AR.
If this activity can strengthen further and remain at least
semi-discrete, then a threat for tornadoes will continue given ample
low-level shear (effective SRH around 200-300 m2/s2). Isolated
severe hail and damaging winds may also occur. At this point, the
southern extent of any appreciable severe threat remains somewhat
unclear, as a cap noted on the 06Z sounding from JAN may inhibit
convective development for a while longer in LA and parts of
central/northern MS. Still, some severe risk will persist this
morning across central/eastern AR into western TN/KY and
southeastern MO. This will require new Tornado Watch issuance before
11Z (5 AM CST).

...Gleason/Edwards.. 02/16/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_KxGdRI7VJGuDZSsQyefKa0svyuRy610AlmSaolxHEdoutSbCGL1Bm_DyX4eyezFRvCFGG5oI=
UZ7k1CpcYSb8I8svE4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   34079322 36479112 36959008 37088866 36718814 36118817
            34648957 33539114 33129217 33359332 34079322=20


=3D =3D =3D
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