Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Feb 16 2023 09:50:08

ACUS48 KWNS 160950
SWOD48
SPC AC 160948

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models continue to indicate an unfavorable upper-air
pattern during the early part of the extended period.  Low-level
moisture is forecast by the models to return into the central Gulf
Coast states by Tuesday (day 6) beneath strong westerly upper-level
flow.  Models vary in the timing/evolution of a lower-latitude,
mid-level trough ejecting east-northeastward across northern Mexico
into the Gulf Coast region by Wednesday.  Some models show a
mid-level anticyclone becoming established near the FL Straits
towards the end of the extended period, and this may consequently
lead to increased severe potential (perhaps beyond day 8) as a
western U.S. large-scale trough develops.

...Smith.. 02/16/2023

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