Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Feb 16 2023 09:41:58

AWUS01 KWNH 160941
FFGMPD
OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-161540-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0065
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
440 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2023

Areas affected...Lower OH River Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160940Z - 161540Z

Summary...Repeat thunderstorm activity continues this morning
across portions of the Lower OH River valley prompting a recent
Flash Flood warning along the KY-TN border. Additional rainfall
totals upwards of 3" through 15z will support additional flash
flooding chances within the highlighted area.=20=20

Discussion...Multicell thunderstorms continue to congeal this
morning along a NE-SW oriented stationary front atop the Lower OH
Valley. A recent efficient band of thunderstorms just south of PAH
within the Flash Flood warning produced radar estimated rainfall
rates upwards of 1.7-1.8" per hour, with additional 1.5" per hour
rates noted northwest of PAH. Meanwhile, banded convection
(highlighted in MPD 64) continues to develop upstream over western
TN and MS.

This activity remains supported by a 50 kts of south-southwesterly
850 mb flow impinging upon the stationary front, ahead of an
approaching surface cold front to the west. Aloft, GOES-E WV
imagery denotes a broadly diffluent flow regime within the right
entrance region of a 150 kt jet streak over the Upper Great Lakes.
Mesoanalysis estimates also place an axis of 1.5" PWATs and
500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE through the Lower OH Valley, with veering,
elongated hodographs to support convective organization.

Going into this morning, the wavy stationary front is expected to
meander and eventually lift north as a warm front with a continued
influx of SSW'ly 850 mb inflow into the boundary. This should
allow a NE-SW axis of 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE which is oriented
parallel to the mean flow to maintain additional instances of
training storms.  Recent runs of the HRRR through the next 6 hours
support this idea, maintaining a NE-SW oriented band of 1-3"
totals through 15Z. This scenario would support additional
instances of flash flooding through this morning before the front
cold front approaches, especially atop areas which saw rain from
ongoing activity and earlier storms.=20=20

Asherman

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6m-P7hXBBC9ZbXxGB6amT2up9cGOF5MC9kkzeY9b5HogSa1vwkpuUD842Bl4D-zAlORu=
yvNqP2xwodhY-l70LMS9Nmk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...MEG...OHX...PAH...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   39318345 38238332 36808568 36358798 36338939=20
            36559041 37918919 38778701=20

=3D =3D =3D
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