Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0156
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Feb 16 2023 08:00:36

ACUS11 KWNS 160800
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160800=20
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-161400-

Mesoscale Discussion 0156
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023

Areas affected...Portions of far northern KS into
south-central/southeastern NE...extreme northwestern MO...and
southwestern IA

Concerning...Heavy snow=20

Valid 160800Z - 161400Z

SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow, with rates up to around 1 inch per
hour, should develop east-northeastward through the early morning.

DISCUSSION...An upper trough/low with associated 100+ kt mid-level
southwesterly jet will develop slowly eastward over the central
Plains this morning. Strong large-scale ascent and upper-level
divergence associated with this feature has encouraged the
development of a mesoscale snow band currently focused over far
north-central KS into south-central NE. Temperatures through the
troposphere are quite cold, with latest surface observations showing
temperatures generally in the mid teens. Therefore, dominant
precipitation type with this band will likely remain snow, with
perhaps some sleet mixed in on the southern fringe. Current
expectations are for this snow band to develop slowly
east-northeastward across southeastern NE into southwestern IA and
extreme northwestern MO over the next several hours. Per recent RAP
forecast soundings across this region, a saturated profile through
mid levels and pronounced lift through the dendritic growth zone
should support a narrow zone of snowfall rates up to around 1 inch
per hour, even with limited low-level moisture present.

...Gleason.. 02/16/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5-QddaW-_khzcEki9lafSBbnZEYHTj4Q6Z1RgbFznVdSNlTHJLXC8AaXo0JkKSvouy7zfpip0=
JAaCwi266j1HcldkvQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON   39729729 39609851 39809918 40199950 40629920 41339737
            41729554 41799489 41779422 41489388 40649417 40329493
            39889630 39729729=20


=3D =3D =3D
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