Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Feb 16 2023 07:59:29

FOUS30 KWBC 160759
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
257 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2023

Day 1
Valid 01Z Thu Feb 16 2023 - 12Z Thu Feb 16 2023

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, SOUTH INTO THE UPPER TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...

There is good model agreement on the eastward push of strong
height falls from the Central to Southern Plains into the Mid to
Lower MS Valley, OH Valley and TN Valley day 1.  Strong south
southwesterly low level flow off the western Gulf will continue to
transport much above average PW values, 2 to 3 standard deviations
above the mean,  northeastward ahead of these height falls and the
associated cold front.  In the wake of the initial surge of heavy
rains pushing northeast early this morning from the Lower MS
Valley through the TN Valley, an organized frontal or pre-frontal
squall line likely to push eastward through the Lower MS Valley
into the TN Valley region Thursday into Thursday evening in what
will be an overall very favorable pattern for an organized
convective line along and ahead of the eastward moving front, with
strong frontal convergence expected in the axis of anomalous PW
values and Mu-Cape values 500-1000+ j/kg.  Areas that receive
heavy rains from the initial surge of precip prior to 12Z Thursday
will likely receive additional heavy rains as the
frontal/pre-frontal squall line pushes eastward later Thursday.=20
This may be especially so from central TN northeast into central
to eastern KY.  Across these areas HREF neighborhood probabilities
for 2"+ amounts after 1200 UTC Thursday are high, 50-90%, and
20-50% for 3"+ amounts.  The convective squall line is also
expected to be well defined southward from northern-central
AL/north GA into southeast MS.  The slight risk was drawn farther
south from the previous outlook to cover the model consensus for
heavy rains across northern to central AL, and far north GA that
also overlap some of the lower FFG values.=20

Oravec


Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9ct5Cg1V3HG3sygi9ZnRKwiVPzTtlm2rWBhJoZZ8PdSl=
QFz1HX4g-t2GI0KcHELWIxhcNKCritCXcdhnjOHGh_fVw8c$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9ct5Cg1V3HG3sygi9ZnRKwiVPzTtlm2rWBhJoZZ8PdSl=
QFz1HX4g-t2GI0KcHELWIxhcNKCritCXcdhnjOHGXRlgWAs$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9ct5Cg1V3HG3sygi9ZnRKwiVPzTtlm2rWBhJoZZ8PdSl=
QFz1HX4g-t2GI0KcHELWIxhcNKCritCXcdhnjOHGFdSy8gA$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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