Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0155
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Feb 16 2023 05:39:34

ACUS11 KWNS 160539
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160538=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-160645-

Mesoscale Discussion 0155
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1138 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2023

Areas affected...parts of eastern Oklahoma...northwestern
Arkansas...south central Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 34...

Valid 160538Z - 160645Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 34
continues.

SUMMARY...Evolving line of strong to severe thunderstorms spreading
into the Ozark Plateau vicinity probably will continue to be
accompanied by a risk for locally damaging wind gusts and marginally
severe hail into the 2-3 AM CST time frame.

DISCUSSION...An evolving convective system with embedded bowing
structures in radar reflectivities has evolved the past few hours
along the surface frontal zone, mainly to the northwest of a modest
surface cyclone now migrating northeast of McAlester, OK toward
Harrison, AR.  This has been supported by the glancing influence of
mid/upper forcing for ascent, downstream of a short wave
perturbation pivoting northeast of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle
vicinity, which models indicate will tend to shift deeper into the
cool air to the north of the surface frontal zone, across the
Interstate 44 corridor of south central Missouri through 08-09Z.=20=20

With the primary mid/upper short wave trough slow to progress east
of the southern Rockies overnight, forcing to maintain the ongoing
convective system remain unclear.  However, as better warm sector
boundary-layer moisture continues to gradually spread
west/northwestward toward northwestern Arkansas and the
Missouri/Arkansas border vicinity, it is possible that inflow of air
characterized by somewhat better CAPE may maintain vigorous
thunderstorm development several more hours.  As long as this
continues, in the presence of strongly sheared 40-50 kt
west-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow, marginally severe hail and
localized severe gusts will remain possible.

...Kerr.. 02/16/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8SuVTGwR1LBro_2PYMTwCpGJ9JsmWRLKIjWX-CznUobiXLiHo7hM6yax1767FpnQIBnECL-m0=
TP0IyMZKHJJnrwRFbs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON   35439427 35949426 36309336 36919335 37509215 37659094
            36419137 35639221 34399379 34169476 34629490 35439427=20


=3D =3D =3D
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