Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Feb 16 2023 05:29:05

ACUS01 KWNS 160529
SWODY1
SPC AC 160527

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2023

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF STATES TO PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...

....SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from the central
Gulf Coast states northward into the Ohio Valley on Thursday.
Several tornadoes are possible over Mississippi and Alabama,
including the risk for isolated strong tornadoes.

....Central Gulf States to Ohio Valley...

Upper low has shifted into the central High Plains late this
evening. This feature is forecast to track across the Plains and
deamplify, becoming more positive tilted as it moves into the MS
Valley. Strong, broad southwesterly flow will be maintained at mid
levels from TX into the lower Great Lakes through the period. A
notable surface reflection will respond to this short wave, with a
low forecast to track from the Ozarks at the start of the period,
into southwest IN by 18z, then into upstate NY by 17/12z. This
evolution should allow a modified warm sector to advance north of
the OH River into southern portions of IN/OH during the afternoon.
Even so, forecast buoyancy across this region is not expected to be
that significant, but strongly sheared convection will be capable of
generating damaging winds within a pronounced low-level warm
advection regime.

Farther south across the central Gulf States, a corridor of
strong/severe supercells should be ongoing at the start of the
period from eastern AR into western TN Valley. Strong ESRH, in
excess of 300 M2/S2 will likely be maintained across much of MS/AL
into the TN Valley ahead of the front. Though significant cloudiness
will likely suppress daytime heating, temperatures should rise into
the lower 70s across much of this region. Forecast soundings also
exhibit steep mid-level lapse rates which will aid buoyancy for
storms that develop ahead of the front. Early-day convection should
spread east across middle TN into northern MS with additional storms
expected to evolve farther south by mid day, extending across
southwestern MS into portions of southeast LA before spreading
across much of AL during the evening. While frontal forcing will
likely contribute to line segments, and possibly an elongated MCS,
wind profiles favor supercells. All hazards appear possible,
especially south of the TN Valley, along with a risk for isolated
strong tornadoes.

...Darrow/Thornton.. 02/16/2023

$$

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