Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0154
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Feb 16 2023 04:51:04

ACUS11 KWNS 160451
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160450=20
MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-160645-

Mesoscale Discussion 0154
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1050 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2023

Areas affected...parts of northern Louisiana...eastern
Arkansas...southwestern Tennessee and northwestern Mississippi

Concerning...Tornado Watch 35...

Valid 160450Z - 160645Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 35 continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for severe thunderstorms capable of producing
tornadoes may peak during the Midnight-3 AM CST time frame.

DISCUSSION...As the center of a modest surface cyclone migrates from
near McAlester, OK toward the Fayetteville/Harrison, AR vicinity
through 06-08Z, flow around 850 mb is forecast to continue
increasing in excess of 40 kts in a broadening swath centered across
Arkansas into the lower Mississippi Valley.  Within this regime,
deeper low-level moisture appears likely to focus along a confluence
zone well ahead of the main surface front trailing the cyclone,
across northeastern Louisiana toward areas near/northwest of
Memphis.

Convection continues to gradually deepen along this corridor, with
thunderstorms initiating as mid-level inhibition is overcome with
large-scale ascent.  Although, even in the warmer and more moist
boundary-layer across this region, weak/stable near-surface lapse
rates could still mitigate the severe weather threat somewhat,
low-level hodographs may become most conducive to the risk for
tornadoes, before trending more linear with the approach of the
front later tonight.

...Kerr.. 02/16/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9y_OgmCCeDZa5c0MXlGDcSiQIwJQZbQ7Ef5ShAYT083Z92DNOQXt8J9LTTnmICnpsFypL--xw=
KrfbCvJaNkKGbHS5I8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   32969296 35219117 35858959 34858899 32909095 32249253
            32969296=20


=3D =3D =3D
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