Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0153
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Feb 16 2023 03:22:05

ACUS11 KWNS 160321
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160321=20
ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-160415-

Mesoscale Discussion 0153
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0921 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2023

Areas affected...southeastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon=20

Valid 160321Z - 160415Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Severe threat continues this evening. Downstream watch
issuance likely needed.

DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms continues to advance
northeastward this evening across eastern Oklahoma. A few more
discrete cells have been able to develop ahead of the main line
producing severe hail. Recently, 1 inch hail was reported near Ada,
Oklahoma. The risk of severe hail and gusty winds will continue to
be favored, especially within storms that can maintain discrete
modes within the warm sector. Boundary layer conditions continue to
be unfavorably dry with dew points in the mid 50s across much of
eastern Oklahoma. Recent surface objective analysis indicates that
the capping inversion across far southeastern OK/TX/AR may be
eroding in the last few hours within a region of 1000-1500 J/kg of
SBCAPE. Surface observations show 60 F dew points within the
Arklatex vicinity extending as far northward as McCurtain County
Oklahoma. A tornado or two will be possible with discrete modes/line
mergers occur within the corridor of better low-level moisture,
especially as shear profiles are further enhanced with increasing
850 mb flow over the next couple of hours. A downstream watch will
likely be needed within the hour.

...Thornton/Guyer.. 02/16/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_B7bqhmdhLfwJy5vMcdXRYjZiUFEKDumAqKwHmiwthoYv_XlKvUgXh7PVtHVjnWH5wb7QY8jV=
tAySQ5trK7hUeSSLzQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33869803 34369764 34669705 34889669 34939650 35009591
            35249532 35549496 35909461 36339447 36359417 36109390
            35869369 35469353 35109343 34549362 34339378 34159391
            34079404 34009506 33899568 33839660 33769700 33629779
            33869803=20


=3D =3D =3D
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