Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0152
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Feb 16 2023 00:54:32

ACUS11 KWNS 160054
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160053=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-160300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0152
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0653 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2023

Areas affected...southeastern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 33...

Valid 160053Z - 160300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 33
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential continues within WW33
through the evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop across southern
Oklahoma this evening north of the Red River. 00z soundings from Ft
Worth indicate that the cap has weakened but remains in place
further south of the Red River. Moisture has been gradually
increasing northward with surface dewpoints in the mid 50s observed
into central Oklahoma just south of the Oklahoma City metro. Expect
further storm development to continue as the warm front nudges
northward through the next few hours. Presently, the best
instability remains south of the Oklahoma City metro near the Red
River where SBCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg is observed in surface
objective analysis. Any more isolated storm that can develop within
the warm sector ahead of the advancing cold front will pose a risk
for severe hail up to 1-1.5", given deep layer shear around 60 kts.
As the front advances eastward by 04-06z, expect multicellular mode
to become more linear and grow upscale. Threat will then likely
transition to damaging wind, with more isolated severe hail within
stronger cores.

...Thornton/Guyer.. 02/16/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-dqC-DwYsNWD1QnpFapvkCto57N5fOWONYBDYYDg10HNnO5X1aLc9XxuH-H4_J210QCHmX_Pz=
j7bR8-11S_nhepv5Bs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   34269825 34599794 35069715 35119649 35119609 34879535
            34589448 34339448 34109466 33989482 33879518 33819561
            33839606 33909696 33959759 33979802 33979818 34269825=20


=3D =3D =3D
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