Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Feb 16 2023 00:39:02

ACUS01 KWNS 160038
SWODY1
SPC AC 160037

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2023

Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH REGION...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with large hail are possible over parts of
north Texas and southern Oklahoma this evening.  A threat for
tornadoes, severe-thunderstorm winds and isolated hail will develop
tonight over the lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South region.

....01z Update...

Leading edge of large-scale ascent appears to be spreading across
western OK, ahead of the main upper trough located over the southern
Rockies. During the last few hours, agitated cu field along the dry
line has evolved into a small cluster of discrete
showers/thunderstorms that is lifting northeast along the surface
front over south-central OK. 00z sounding from FWD exhibited steep
lapse rates, but remained capped around 2km, while OUN was decidedly
north of the boundary with moistening near 700mb in response to the
approaching trough. This cluster of evolving storms should expand in
areal coverage and intensity as it propagates into a region of
higher-PW air mass over southeast OK and adjacent portions of north
TX near the Red River.

Downstream, LLJ should begin to strengthen this evening across the
lower MS Valley/Mid-South. This will allow higher moisture to
advance north across the MS Delta into western TN/northeast AR. 00z
sounding from LZK remains capped near 2km, while SHV had a much
weaker cap near 3km. As mid-level lapse rates adjust/cool across
this region isolated supercells will likely evolve within the warm
advection zone/strengthening LLJ. Supercells with all hazards are
expected, along with the possibility for a strong tornado.

...Darrow.. 02/16/2023

$$

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