Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0151
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Feb 15 2023 23:42:03

ACUS11 KWNS 152341
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152341=20
MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-160245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0151
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0541 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2023

Areas affected...parts of central and northern Louisiana and
Mississippi...southeastern Arkansas...southwestern Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 152341Z - 160245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...There appears some potential for isolated supercells
capable of producing tornadoes in a corridor across central
Louisiana through central Mississippi into this evening.  More
widespread thunderstorm development with increasing severe weather
potential appears more probable in a corridor from northern
Louisiana into northern Mississippi and adjacent portions of the
lower Mississippi Valley during the 8-11 PM CST time frame.

DISCUSSION...A weakness in mid-level inhibition around the 700 mb
level appears to be allowing for the initiation of scattered
thunderstorms in a corridor roughly from Alexandria, LA through the
Jackson, MS area, where warm sector boundary-layer destabilization
is peaking.  Objective analysis suggests that CAPE may range from
1000-2000 J/kg, in the presence of strong deep layer shear beneath
40-50 kt west-southwesterly flow around 500 mb.  Beneath southerly
850 mb flow around 30+ kt, low-level hodographs appear moderately
large and clockwise curved.  This environment appears potentially
conducive to supercell development with a risk for tornadoes during
the next hour or two.  However, it remains unclear if this initial
convection will be sustained after dark, once near-surface cooling
increases convective inhibition.

There appears better potential for new thunderstorm activity to
initiate along a corridor farther to the north, roughly across parts
of northern Louisiana, southeastern Arkansas and northern
Mississippi, coincident with a strengthening south-southwesterly
low-level jet (40-50 kt around 850 mb) through the 02-05Z time
frame.  This may be aided by forcing associated with strengthening
divergence aloft, between coupled upper-level speed maxima migrating
around the periphery of the subtropical ridge centered over the
Caribbean/Bahamas.

...Kerr/Guyer.. 02/15/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7jR0xJAfMV4SmIQNjWSk6PBdLXVr9ZRj3dcTIl6-HaL6pxzAuU6C8w0MVD_-2gTOulBvhwiQs=
3hU1HBxvBbJfgc2-MM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   33009370 34039253 34629127 35228947 33608879 32388901
            32148973 31199157 31129301 33009370=20


=3D =3D =3D
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