Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0150
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Feb 15 2023 21:21:32

ACUS11 KWNS 152121
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152120=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-152215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0150
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0320 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2023

Areas affected...central North Texas into the south-central and
southeastern Oklahoma vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 152120Z - 152215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Risk for severe storms -- including potential for a a
tornado or two -- is forecast to steadily increase over the next few
hours as the atmosphere destabilizes.  WW issuance will likely be
required in the next one to two hours.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows shallow low-level
moisture continuing to stream north-northwestward across central and
southeastern Texas toward North Texas.  Dewpoints are now into the
mid 50s at the Red River, and near 60 into the Metroplex, but with a
fairly substantial cap still evident in a recent (21Z) FWD (Fort
Worth) RAOB.=20=20

Still, as the upper system now centered near the Four Corners (per
WV imagery) continues moving eastward, increasing ascent (hinted at
by high-based CU developing over western North Texas) should
continue to erode the cap, eventually resulting in surface-based
storm development.

With steep lapse rates evident aloft, and a kinematic environment
featuring flow that veers from south-southeasterly to southwesterly
through 6km, and increases substantially in magnitude through this
layer, potential for supercells -- particularly with initial storm
development -- and an attendant risk for large hail is evident.=20
Where truly surface-based storms may develop -- i.e. mainly from the
Red River vicinity southward, a tornado or two will also be
possible.

...Goss/Leitman.. 02/15/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!59jxb0VzxqyHcqRqpwP_b_Zsl7d8g1fKWGjfNauga-5x4wsXKEc2qjewvMzI5sfefx0V_am8Q=
Jl-wuX8VaglnABK2PY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33229846 34709794 35169704 35619574 35259533 34339522
            32889658 32199835 33229846=20


=3D =3D =3D
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