Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0149
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Feb 15 2023 14:31:59

ACUS11 KWNS 151431
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151431=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-152030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0149
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0831 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2023

Areas affected...portions of eastern Colorado...into the
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles...northeastern New Mexico...and  western
Kansas

Concerning...Heavy snow=20

Valid 151431Z - 152030Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snow with rates of 1-1.5 in/hr is expected to start
shortly and will continue through the early afternoon. Heavy snow
may impact travel.

DISCUSSION...As of 1430 UTC, regional radar and satellite imagery
showed a broad band of mostly light to moderate snow exiting the
central/southern Rockies into portions of the adjacent High Plains.
Associated with a deepening upper low evident on WV imagery over the
Four Corners, dynamic lift from large scale DPVA ahead of the upper
low is expected to increase in the next few hours as it ejects
eastward. At the surface a low over southern CO will shift eastward
and intensify in the lee of the Rockies bolstering widespread
upslope flow. heavy snow should develop first over portions of
southeastern CO before spreading eastward into the OK/TX Panhandles
and western KS.=20

Surface obs show temperatures are already well below freezing across
the Front Range and southeast CO where light snow is already ongoing
or will begin shortly. 12z RAOBS from DDC and AMA show cool, but
relatively dry profiles through the lowest couple of km. As forcing
for ascent increases through the day snow will gradually develop as
saturation is reached through the late morning and intensify through
the afternoon. Area RAP soundings show deep DGZ coincident with
strong upslope flow and dynamic forcing. Steep lapse rates in the
lowest few km also suggest banding may develop within the broader
precipitation shield supporting periodic heavy snow with rates of
1-1.5 in/hr possible. The heaviest snow appears most likely along
the northern rim of the Raton Mesa, into the OK/TX Panhandles, and
eventually southwestern KS. Localized 1.5 in/hr rates will also be
possible along the Palmer Divide into portions of northwestern KS.
Snow should continue through the morning before slowly weakening
later this afternoon as the upper low ejects to the east.

...Lyons.. 02/15/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4Ju5pzCjJRbL0ZPZfCPS6afRBur095bOVKHXdMO5fmiAPerP0Hj_TPUjfgYdJdvHxYR6dvr_1=
dkfJLFHGBSBn1woZyM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON   37280493 38200481 38460430 38870389 39340373 39670347
            39960287 40000220 39990066 39920041 39830032 39270032
            37960073 37130108 36500167 36190204 35900249 35830277
            35800316 36140402 36590450 36770463 37280493=20


=3D =3D =3D
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