Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Feb 15 2023 06:53:16 ACUS02 KWNS 150653 SWODY2 SPC AC 150651 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ....SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from the central Gulf Coast states northward into the Ohio Valley on Thursday and Thursday evening. Several tornadoes are possible over Mississippi and Alabama, including the risk for strong tornadoes. ....Synopsis... A powerful mid-level trough will gradually move east from the central Great Plains/Desert Southwest to the Great Lakes/southern Great Plains during the period. A surface low initially over southern MO will develop northeast to central IN by early-mid afternoon, and subsequently to the Lower Great Lakes during the overnight. A cold front attendant to the low will sweep eastward across the OH Valley and the central Gulf Coast states. A surface boundary over the OH Valley will advance north as a warm front as the low develops east-northeast along it. ....Central Gulf Coast states... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Thursday morning near a cold front over AR/LA with a marginal risk for severe storms accompanying this early activity. Southerly low-level flow will advect richer moisture into the coastal plain, while some heating amidst cloud breaks acts to destabilize the airmass. Models suggest diurnal thunderstorm development in the warm sector during peak heating, to the east of the front over parts of MS and spreading into AL. Large clockwise-curved and elongated hodographs will favor supercells with the more robust updrafts. Several tornadoes (some strong) are possible and may focus in a mesoscale corridor where the greatest buoyancy (1000 J/kg MLCAPE) is indicated by the models, over parts of MS east into west-central AL during the early evening. By mid evening, lessening instability due to nocturnal cooling and storms consolidating into more linear modes indicate the severe risk (i.e., damaging gusts/tornado) will begin to wane, as the storms move east into eastern AL/western GA/FL Panhandle. ....OH Valley into the Lower Great Lakes... Showers and thunderstorms located within a strong WAA regime will be widespread across the lower OH Valley at daybreak Thursday. An isolated risk for strong to severe thunderstorms may continue into the early part of the morning, before this activity quickly moves northeast and away from the greater instability by midday. A rejuvenation in storms is forecast over parts of IN/KY and spreading east-northeast into OH during the afternoon into the evening. Forecast soundings over west-central OH southwestward to the Kentuckiana region show weak buoyancy but large hodographs and strong speed shear in the lowest 3-6 km. It is uncertain whether a few low-topped supercells will develop within this area of potentially greater buoyancy, but convective coverage is forecast to increase during the afternoon as storms quickly move east-northeast on the northern periphery of a warm sector. Damaging gusts will be the primary hazard, but some tornado risk may develop with either supercells and/or line segments, given the moist boundary layer co-located with strong shear. This activity will likely reach eastern OH into the lower Great Lakes region after sunset, but forecast soundings imply these storms may remain surface based, and perhaps the risk for damaging gusts continues into the late evening. ...Smith.. 02/15/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .