Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Feb 15 2023 00:44:45

ACUS01 KWNS 150044
SWODY1
SPC AC 150042

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023

Valid 150100Z - 151200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
A few strong storms may spread across portions of northwest Missouri
this evening; however, severe threat appears to be waning.

....01z Update...

Strong mid-level short-wave trough is ejecting across the lower MO
Valley this evening. Weak convection developed ahead of this feature
across eastern KS earlier this afternoon as temperatures warmed into
the mid 50s. This activity has now progressed into northwest MO
where a few flashes of lightning remain, mostly over Saline County
MO, immediately ahead of the vort max. Weak buoyancy resides
downstream across much of northern MO into west-central IL and this
should support lightning within the more robust updrafts in advance
of the short wave. However, nocturnal cooling should contribute to
weaker updrafts and overall severe threat appears to be waning.

Upstream across AZ, another strong mid-level trough is digging
southeast across the Great Basin toward the Four-Corners region. A
forced band of convection, with lightning, is noted along the front
southeast of Lake Havasu City. Very cold mid-level temperatures will
spread into northern AZ this evening which should aid
destabilization across this region for potential thunderstorm
development.

...Darrow.. 02/15/2023

$$

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