Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Feb 14 2023 16:18:13 ACUS01 KWNS 141618 SWODY1 SPC AC 141616 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2023 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR EASTERN KS INTO WEST CENTRAL/NORTHWEST MO... ....SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly from eastern Kansas into western Missouri this afternoon and early evening. ....Eastern KS this afternoon to northern IL tonight... In response to upstream amplification of a midlevel trough over the Great Basin, a downstream shortwave trough over western KS/OK this morning will eject northeastward over MO/IA/IL by early tonight. In the wake of morning rain/clouds, surface heating will contribute to steepening of low-level lapse rates across central/eastern KS this afternoon. Residual boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 40s and surface temperatures in the mid 50s, beneath 500 mb temperatures close to -25 C, will result in MLCAPE of 250-500 J/kg by mid afternoon across eastern KS. The environment will support low-topped thunderstorm development by mid afternoon in a loose arc or small clusters from south central into eastern KS, immediately in advance of the primary midlevel vorticity center, and on the nose of the steeper low-level lapse rates and drying from the southwest. Forecast soundings show sufficient buoyancy and hodograph length/curvature for some threat of low-topped supercells, with attendant threats for a tornado or two, isolated large hail, and damaging outflow gusts through late afternoon/early evening into west central/northwest MO. This scenario will be quite sensitive to the degree of vertical mixing, with small changes in moisture potentially driving outcome possibilities ranging from no severe to SLGT risk. Some form of the afternoon storm cluster may persist into tonight while spreading northeastward from MO into northern IL. Gusty winds will be possible early tonight with lingering, low-topped convection, but very marginal thermodynamic profiles suggest that severe gusts are unlikely. ...Thompson/Lyons.. 02/14/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .