Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Feb 14 2023 08:23:41 ACUS03 KWNS 140823 SWODY3 SPC AC 140822 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LAKE ERIE VICINITY... ....SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Gulf Coast states northward into the Ohio Valley and Lake Erie vicinity on Thursday and Thursday evening. Severe gusts capable of wind damage and tornadoes are the primary severe hazards. ....Synopsis... Another severe episode, and potentially becoming bi-modal in spatial coverage, is forecast on Thursday through Thursday evening. A large-scale, positively tilted mid-level trough will gradually move from the central Great Plains into the Desert Southwest to the Great Lakes and Ozark Plateau. A belt of intense 500-mb flow will move northeast to the east of the eastward-progressing trough axis. In the low levels, a surface low will migrate northeast from southeast MO to the Lower Great Lakes Thursday night. A cold front will sweep southeastward across the lower MS Valley and OH Valley before reaching the Appalachians. Considerable shower/thunderstorm activity is expected to be ongoing Thursday morning from the OH Valley southward into the lower MS Valley. Some of these storms, likely already grown upscale into lines and bands of storms, will probably pose some risk for strong, damaging gusts and perhaps a localized tornado risk. It is uncertain whether these initial storms continue east and some of them re-intensify during the day, or additional storms develop in their wake where some destabilization can occur. Regardless, it seems the warm sector with 100-500 J/kg MLCAPE will overspread much of the OH Valley. Low-topped bands of storms within strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will favor at least some threat for damaging gusts on the northern portion of the warm sector. Some of these storms or low-topped convective bands may pose a wind hazard well into the evening near/southeast of the surface low track. Farther south, multiple storm modes (i.e., linear convection and supercells) may evolve and maximize their threat during peak heating across parts of AL/MS. Richer low-level moisture and greater buoyancy may result in the threat for a few tornadoes and widely scattered damaging gusts. Several clusters of storms will likely spread from west to east across the central Gulf Coast states before this activity gradually weakens, and the severe risk wanes by the mid evening along the coastal plain. ...Smith.. 02/14/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .