Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Feb 13 2023 19:25:38 ACUS01 KWNS 131925 SWODY1 SPC AC 131924 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2023 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm potential appears minimal through tonight. No changes were made to the outlook at 20Z. Scattered daytime thunderstorms will remain possible today across AZ and NM as a strong upper trough moves east, and overnight into parts of the southern Plains when a low-level jet increases lift and moisture advection, resulting in weak elevated instability. Very small hail is conceivable tonight in this region given the cold temperature profiles. Elsewhere, shallow convection over western WA and OR will remain possible through early evening north of the midlevel jet/temperature gradient where cold temperatures aloft will contribute to steep lapse rates. Westerly low-level flow and subsequent upslope into the Cascades may also be a focus for lift today. Instability will remain too weak for any severe risk. ...Jewell.. 02/13/2023 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2023/ ....AZ/NM this afternoon into the southern Plains tonight... A closed midlevel low over southwest AZ this morning will eject east-northeastward to the southern High Plains by Tuesday morning, in response to amplification of an upstream trough over the Pacific Northwest. Moisture is somewhat limited this morning across AZ/NM, but steep lapse rates will support the potential for isolated thunderstorms through the afternoon, some of which could produce gusty outflow winds. Downstream from the ejecting midlevel trough, surface lee cyclogenesis will occur late today into tonight across southeast CO. The lee cyclogenesis will contribute to strengthening southerly flow across the southern Plains and western Gulf basin. However, moisture return into TX will be somewhat limited by a recent frontal intrusion, with boundary-layer dewpoints expected to remain primarily in the mid 50s to lower 60s. MUCAPE will likely be limited to a few hundred J/kg by the modest moisture return, as midlevel lapse rates are reduced by ascent/saturation overnight. Forecast soundings do show some low-end potential for strong surface gusts with a forced convective band overnight from northwest TX into southwest OK, but the weak buoyancy rooted above the surface and slightly stable low-level profiles suggest that downward momentum transfer will be sufficiently muted to forgo the addition of damaging wind probabilities. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .