Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Feb 13 2023 16:28:38

ACUS01 KWNS 131628
SWODY1
SPC AC 131626

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1026 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2023

Valid 131630Z - 141200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe-thunderstorm potential appears minimal through tonight.

....AZ/NM this afternoon into the southern Plains tonight...
A closed midlevel low over southwest AZ this morning will eject
east-northeastward to the southern High Plains by Tuesday morning,
in response to amplification of an upstream trough over the Pacific
Northwest.  Moisture is somewhat limited this morning across AZ/NM,
but steep lapse rates will support the potential for isolated
thunderstorms through the afternoon, some of which could produce
gusty outflow winds.

Downstream from the ejecting midlevel trough, surface lee
cyclogenesis will occur late today into tonight across southeast CO.
 The lee cyclogenesis will contribute to strengthening southerly
flow across the southern Plains and western Gulf basin.  However,
moisture return into TX will be somewhat limited by a recent frontal
intrusion, with boundary-layer dewpoints expected to remain
primarily in the mid 50s to lower 60s.  MUCAPE will likely be
limited to a few hundred J/kg by the modest moisture return, as
midlevel lapse rates are reduced by ascent/saturation overnight.
Forecast soundings do show some low-end potential for strong surface
gusts with a forced convective band overnight from northwest TX into
southwest OK, but the weak buoyancy rooted above the surface and
slightly stable low-level profiles suggest that downward momentum
transfer will be sufficiently muted to forgo the addition of
damaging wind probabilities.

...Thompson/Lyons.. 02/13/2023

$$

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