Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Feb 13 2023 17:06:10

ACUS02 KWNS 131706
SWODY2
SPC AC 131704

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2023

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM
EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI...

....SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly from
eastern Kansas into western Missouri Tuesday afternoon into early
evening.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
An intense shortwave trough will move from the southern and central
High Plains Tuesday morning to the mid MS Valley by 00Z, with strong
height falls across the region. During this period, a surface low
will move from KS into IA, with 50+ kt low-level jet moving from
eastern OK/TX across AR, MO, and IL.

Instability will be limited due to the early stages of moisture
return, with generally sub-50 F dewpoints ahead of the low track.
However, cold temperatures aloft combined with daytime heating may
result in a few hundred J/kg of SBCAPE from eastern KS into western
MO during the afternoon. Otherwise, ongoing precipitation will
limited destabilization and heating from the ArkLaTex northward into
MN.

Given midlevel temperatures near -25 C beneath the upper wave,
surface temperatures in the 50s F and 40s F dewpoints may be
sufficient for a few low-topped storms to develop after 20Z in an
arc across eastern KS and into western MO, coincident with the
cooling aloft. Supercell wind profiles may support a brief tornado,
hail or damaging gust threat. At this time, it appears limited
moisture and instability will mitigate the threat somewhat.

Elsewhere, a line of low-topped convection may occur along the front
extending southward into eastern OK and TX early in the day, moving
into AR and LA by afternoon. Poor lapse rates aloft this far south
along with very little MUCAPE should preclude a severe risk, despite
strong low-level wind fields.

...Jewell.. 02/13/2023

$$

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