Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Feb 13 2023 15:15:26

FOUS30 KWBC 131515
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1014 AM EST Mon Feb 13 2023

Day 1
Valid 16Z Mon Feb 13 2023 - 12Z Tue Feb 14 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Orrison


Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Feb 14 2023 - 12Z Wed Feb 15 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Hurley

Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Feb 15 2023 - 12Z Thu Feb 16 2023

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEY...

Upper level jet streak and associated shortwave energy will round
the base of the longwave trough on Wednesday, then lift northeast
along the eastern periphery late Wed-Wed night as the the trough
begins to phase with the northern stream shortwave. At the
surface, the guidance is fairly well clustered with the lee-side
low emerging across the TX Panhandle by midday Wed, however model
differences begin to appear afterwards -- moreso with the timing
than the track. The 00Z NAM and GFS are on the faster edges of the
guidance spread, with the UKMet and ECMWF much slower with the low
progression Wed night (CMC basically in the middle of the
faster/slower camps). Either way, positive tilt of the 850-500 mb
troughs (more southwest vs. southerly low-level inflow) will limit
the depth and duration of moisture influx from the western GOMEX,
at least through 12Z Thu. 850-700 mb moisture flux standard
anomalies do reach +3 to +4 across the outlook area between 06-12Z
Thu per the 00Z GEFS -- albeit rather late in the Day 3 forecast
period. Thermodynamic parameters are modest, again late in the
period (after 00Z Thu), with PWs climbing towards 1.5" and MUCAPEs
500-1000 J/kg.

Because of the late timing of favorable forcing and thermodynamic
profiles, along with the degree of both speed and directional
shear in the low-mid levels (favoring forward-propagating Corfidi
Vectors and limited potential for cell training), for the Day 3
outlook will maintain the Marginal Risk inherited from yesterday's
experimental Day 4 ERO.

Hurley


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4QXgC0Ysf_Gwxv9kUhbNCzteBYeM4crQRZo9x_YasLU0=
0dEVak0O_VR3FmPgFQUG4DnACzMQIW1Eb0OQgqikcWSvpUs$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4QXgC0Ysf_Gwxv9kUhbNCzteBYeM4crQRZo9x_YasLU0=
0dEVak0O_VR3FmPgFQUG4DnACzMQIW1Eb0OQgqik_UkDfyU$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4QXgC0Ysf_Gwxv9kUhbNCzteBYeM4crQRZo9x_YasLU0=
0dEVak0O_VR3FmPgFQUG4DnACzMQIW1Eb0OQgqikklYohLI$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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